Remainers are always asking what the tangible benefits of Brexit are. Well - while many have manifested, despite how botched the whole thing was by the outgoing Conservative Party - the Trump tariffs announced Wednesday may have provided the greatest example.
Had the UK remained in the EU it would have been subject to a new effective 20% tariff. As it is Britain appears to have gotten off lightly with only 10%, albeit still subject to a 25% tariff applied to all car imports to the US.
Team Trump appears to have calculated the effective tariff rate from each country - factoring in both tariffs and non-tariff barriers (such as health and safety, or licensing requirements) - then applied tariffs back the other way at a rate of about 50 per cent.
Whether or not the tariffs bring in the desired loot and boost US manufacturing (most economists are hugely sceptical), this looks set to be the start of a new trade war. The US may doubly shoot itself in the foot if it not only alienates allies but makes bedfellows out of adversaries (China, Japan and Korea look set to work together to challenge the tariffs).
Hitting allies like Canada and Japan hard seems especially weird; while punishing Taiwan - given the threat posed to that country by China as well as the fact Taiwan captured the semiconductor industry through hard work rather than manipulation - seems to be especially unfortunate in the context of rising tensions in Asia.
Those countries must now plan their next move. The UK however got off comparatively lightly (even major US ally Israel got hit with a higher tariff) while Britain's trading relationship with the EU will not be impacted since UK exporters will still be able to send goods to the EU tariff-free.
A win for Brexit perhaps but could we also call this a win for Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer? Facing backbench rebellion at home - due to Labour's austerity-lite policies - Sir Keir appeared to charm Donald Trump on a recent trip Stateside with a state visit in the offing, while rumours abound of an invitation for the US to join the Commonwealth.
The UK could play its cards well here. On better terms with America than practically any other US ally - not least in the EU - while still on friendly terms with, if semi-detached from, Brussels, the UK also has its Commonwealth alliances to build on. Sir Keir has presumably decided not to retaliate yet to extract maximum advantages for Britain, including a potential trade deal. Credit where credit's due, that isn't the dumbest idea ever.
None of this is to discount the impact the tariffs could still have on Britain (thousands of jobs remain at risk), while the tariffs themselves are unlikely to buck the historical trend of backfiring. American consumers are likely to face inflationary pressures while the US could end up alienating most of its major allies, not exactly the thing to do on the eve of a potential world war.
Still, Team Trump has indicated some willingness to negotiate. In the meantime, whatever else now transpires, the UK has escaped comparatively lightly thanks to Brexit. Had Britain stayed in the EU it would be facing double the tariffs it faces today. Whether Remainers like it or not - and whether they choose to paint the UK as the supplicant in this situation - this is a tangible benefit of leaving the EU.
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