Oil remains a vital component of the global economy, impacting geopolitical relations and national revenues. Recent tensions in the Middle East, especially the escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, have led to fluctuations in international crude oil prices, underscoring the sector's ongoing volatility and potential supply disruptions.
The IEA’s 2024 oil report anticipates a slowdown in global oil consumption growth in the coming years, influenced by rising electric vehicle sales, improved efficiency, reduced reliance on oil for electricity in the Middle East, and broader economic shifts.
Global oil demand is projected to increase by 3.2 million barrels per day by 2030 unless stronger policy measures are taken or consumer behaviours change. According to the IEA, advanced economies are expected to see a long-term decline in oil consumption, with usage dropping from 46 million barrels per day in 2023 to below 43 million by 2030. Conversely, Asia's rapidly developing economies, particularly in transportation (India) and petrochemicals (China), will significantly drive global oil consumption.
As the region's growth continues, supported by a relatively stable global economy, the IEA slightly raised its growth forecast for 2024 to 5.0%, with a steady prediction of 4.9% for 2025. To accommodate this anticipated demand, non-OPEC+ producers are expected to play a crucial role, contributing three-quarters of the global production increase by 2030. The United States alone is projected to add 2.1 million barrels per day to non-OPEC+ growth, while Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will collectively contribute an additional 2.7 million barrels per day. In contrast, OPEC+ is set to increase its production capacity by 1.4 million barrels per day between 2023 and 2030, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading this expansion. However, the alliance’s share of global oil production is expected to fall below 50% starting this year as non-OPEC+ nations take the lead in capacity growth.
Top 10 oil-producing countries
As of April 11, 2024, total world oil production reached 101.81 million barrels per day, with the top ten producing countries accounting for approximately 74.59 million barrels per day, or about 73% of global output.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Energy Statistics
Top 10 oil-consuming countries
As of April 11, 2024, global oil consumption reached 99.95 million barrels per day, with the top ten consuming countries accounting for about 61.08 million barrels per day, or 61% of global consumption.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Energy Statistics
India’s growing role in global oil consumption trends
India ranks as the world’s third-largest oil consumer, utilising approximately 5.05 million barrels per day, which accounts for 5% of global consumption. The country is expected to increase its oil demand by nearly 1.2 million barrels per day by 2030, contributing over a third of the anticipated global demand growth of 3.2 million barrels per day, according to the IEA.
The report states that "India will emerge as the largest contributor to global oil demand growth between now and 2030," while growth in developed economies and China is projected to slow and eventually decline. This growth is primarily driven by urbanisation, industrialization, a rising middle class eager for mobility and travel, and efforts to enhance access to clean cooking, which will collectively support the expansion of oil demand.
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The IEA’s 2024 oil report anticipates a slowdown in global oil consumption growth in the coming years, influenced by rising electric vehicle sales, improved efficiency, reduced reliance on oil for electricity in the Middle East, and broader economic shifts.
Global oil demand is projected to increase by 3.2 million barrels per day by 2030 unless stronger policy measures are taken or consumer behaviours change. According to the IEA, advanced economies are expected to see a long-term decline in oil consumption, with usage dropping from 46 million barrels per day in 2023 to below 43 million by 2030. Conversely, Asia's rapidly developing economies, particularly in transportation (India) and petrochemicals (China), will significantly drive global oil consumption.
As the region's growth continues, supported by a relatively stable global economy, the IEA slightly raised its growth forecast for 2024 to 5.0%, with a steady prediction of 4.9% for 2025. To accommodate this anticipated demand, non-OPEC+ producers are expected to play a crucial role, contributing three-quarters of the global production increase by 2030. The United States alone is projected to add 2.1 million barrels per day to non-OPEC+ growth, while Argentina, Brazil, Canada, and Guyana will collectively contribute an additional 2.7 million barrels per day. In contrast, OPEC+ is set to increase its production capacity by 1.4 million barrels per day between 2023 and 2030, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading this expansion. However, the alliance’s share of global oil production is expected to fall below 50% starting this year as non-OPEC+ nations take the lead in capacity growth.
Top 10 oil-producing countries
As of April 11, 2024, total world oil production reached 101.81 million barrels per day, with the top ten producing countries accounting for approximately 74.59 million barrels per day, or about 73% of global output.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Energy Statistics
Top 10 oil-consuming countries
As of April 11, 2024, global oil consumption reached 99.95 million barrels per day, with the top ten consuming countries accounting for about 61.08 million barrels per day, or 61% of global consumption.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and International Energy Statistics
India’s growing role in global oil consumption trends
India ranks as the world’s third-largest oil consumer, utilising approximately 5.05 million barrels per day, which accounts for 5% of global consumption. The country is expected to increase its oil demand by nearly 1.2 million barrels per day by 2030, contributing over a third of the anticipated global demand growth of 3.2 million barrels per day, according to the IEA.
The report states that "India will emerge as the largest contributor to global oil demand growth between now and 2030," while growth in developed economies and China is projected to slow and eventually decline. This growth is primarily driven by urbanisation, industrialization, a rising middle class eager for mobility and travel, and efforts to enhance access to clean cooking, which will collectively support the expansion of oil demand.
Also Read | Who is JD Vance? Key facts about his family and net worth
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